When George A. Romero was looking for inspiration for the zombies in Night of the Living Dead; a slow moving, seemingly unstoppable, destructive force to nature and man alike, he should have looked no further than the M4 relief road. The saga of this development has been going on for nearly a decade at the expense of over £100m and does not seem to be anywhere near ending.
Despite the Welsh Government’s insistence that the road will not be built, it is likely that the debate will continue for some time. This is because the relief road itself is not a single project, but rather a segment of the overarching economic thinking that both the Welsh and Westminster governments share: that a successful economy requires large economic centres.
The aim of the Welsh Government is to turn Cardiff into the heart of the Welsh economy. The M4 relief road, the South Wales Metro, the electrification of the South Wales train lines, and the Heads of the Valleys all exist on top of Cardiff Council receiving £469m annually from the Welsh government[1]. Additionally, Cardiff boasts the largest amount of new homes built by local authority according to latest government statistics[2]. Projects in Swansea and north Wales do not detract from the immense amount of attention Cardiff receives. Evidently, The Welsh Government have big plans for our capital city.
From a historical point of view, this makes perfect sense. If trading and services must be done face to face, it is logical to have a single location in which people can congregate. Supporting the ability of people to come together to this single central location thereby supports greater economic activity. Urbanisation is a common policy project of just about every government, regardless of their position on the left/right axis. However, given that we now live in a world with improved telecommunications, a climate emergency, and, as has become glaringly apparent, an increased risk of pandemic, we should begin to rethink this wisdom.
The first obvious issue is that the current situation creates a huge demand for land in our city, ensuring that the price of each square mile will remain high. The implications of this are clear to see for anyone walking through Cardiff. Local businesses are squeezed out as they struggle to afford the business rates, meaning that options are limited to generic chain restaurants, pubs, shops, and cafes. Our music venues, the heart of a so-called ‘city of music’ are being closed down and replaced as the land they occupy is too valuable to pass up. Greedy developers subvert building requirements by developing luxury student flats, only to convert them into residential accommodation when rooms are not filled. This is not accidental, but a deliberate act to ensure the most for their money, resulting is soulless buildings littering the skyline of Cardiff. People who grew up in the city, who call Cardiff their home, are being pushed out due to this mass gentrification.
Of course, as Cardiff grows economically, so does the amount of people who need to travel to work. While the Welsh Government state they are pursuing a green agenda, more people will lead to greater numbers of personal vehicles. One study demonstrated that relative to size, Cardiff has the fourth worst levels of air pollution in the UK.[3] Even now, Cardiff is choking under the strain of it’s own growth. Government data illustrates there is comparatively high levels of air pollution not only along the main roads into Cardiff, but also in the commuter towns[4]. If demand within the city increases, the commuter towns and roads are only going to worsen in terms of pollution, further increasing the damage to people’s health.
The added consequence of increased population is that we will have infrastructure that is always in need of repair. It is impossible to build something to last forever but given the determination to increase the growth of Cardiff, we will find ourselves forever catching up with demand. The simple wear and tear of roads, bridges, and streets will increase in line with the rise in population. Inevitably, more and more resources would need to be sent to Cardiff just to maintain the infrastructure.
Now it is easy to see these issues as fairly simple to fix. Air pollution can be tackled with renewable energy and electric transportation. Personal vehicle usage would decrease if public transport was reliable and affordable. Greater support for small businesses, music venues, and sustainable housing development would help protect many locals from greedy developers.
However, these solutions will not address the elephant in the room. Firstly, by improving Cardiff in this way, we are making it much more attractive to live in, thereby increasing demand and beginning the cycle anew. This is not to say we should not be attempting to improve, but that it is futile to expect it to be a long term solution if we are planning to grow the city. The second, and far more pressing issue is the impact that this kind of development has on our rural towns and villages.
Urbanisation is an unrelating force that seeks to use miles of land to serve a single centre. The surrounding towns and villages are repurposed into suburbs, designed to offer easy access to a main road or train station, and feed into a city. We are already seeing this in commuter towns, where house prices are high not because of the area itself, but because of the convenience of being able to get to work. For example, In south Monmouthshire, house prices rose as a direct consequence of the Severn Bridge tolls being removed.
This has a direct economic consequence on small towns. As minds are focused on Cardiff for work, so do they become a focus of leisure. Theatres, night life and eating out all take place in the city. Not only is there often greater choice, but it is easier to access straight after work. It is likely that many of our friends and colleagues will settle in other areas in and around a city, making it even more convenient to travel to a central location.
There is likely a disparity in wage between those living in suburbs and commuting, and those who live and work locally. Local jobs are more likely to be in retail or the service sector and are more likely to pay far less in comparison to the average white collar city job. The multiplier effect suggests that money which is spent locally will remain local. However, this is limited when the people spending a greater proportion of time within the towns have less total disposable income.
Local businesses in small towns are neglected in favour of leisure time in the cities. Consequently, the economies of small towns become driven on tourism, struggling season to season to stay afloat. This in turn becomes a perpetual cycle as the high streets and social venues in towns become less appealing, attracting more toward cities.
But the consequences are not just economic or environmental. Instead they reach to the fundamentals of our current political landscape.
The consequence of this unbalanced economy is that we are seeing further backlash against devolution. The notion of a Bay Bubble, where Cardiff is seen as the priority whilst every little community gets the scraps, is becoming more prevalent within our communities. The most tangible development many communities will see often exists to support them to travel outside their community.
That leads to the perception that the Senedd does not serve people, but instead is a means to grow Cardiff and the Bay Bubble. Continuing along this road will only push people further toward the idea of abolishing devolution.
Furthermore, due to the demand, housing on the outskirts is considered a priority for development. It is no secret that Wales is facing a housing crisis, with many younger people being unable to afford housing. The issue is, as many small communities are finding out, the housing demand is being met before the supply of services can catch up. Consequently, we are witnessing huge pressure on GP’s and schools.
The solution being presented is to build mega-schools and mega-hospitals that serve a larger area. Of course, this brings us back to the issues of centralisation, excess travel, and the fact that our solutions fit around the problem, rather than trying to solve it.
People are seeing local services being shut down. The threat to Royal Glamorgan A&E is a notable example, but not an uncommon story in Wales. As our lives change so rapidly away from our local way of life, a sense of alienation is creeping into our communities.
The political scientist Robert Putnam coined the idea of a ‘civic culture,’ a notion which serves as the binding factor in communities. As we engage in local groups, we become more social with those in our community, and thereby become more invested in our area. People are more likely to get involved with local politics and become engaged with bettering their town or village if they have a connection with their neighbours.
However, because people spend so much time commuting, and gravitate towards the centre for their leisure time, they do not have the time or interest to join local groups, and therefore do not develop a sense of civic culture. Additionally, if there are community political efforts, they so frequently fall on deaf ears because the direction of policy from the Welsh Government is hell bent on urbanisation and the replacement of local services. Subsequently, people feel disheartened and alienated.
These feelings of alienation are being picked up by a forceful right-wing. The anti-establishment anti-devolution feeling is taking advantage of this by bringing this rural-urban disparity to the attention of so many, which is exposing hundreds to the usual hallmarks of the right. Historical movements away from urbanisation are marred with anti-immigration sentiment, along with aggressive social-conservatism. The notion that cities are home to a liberal elite who look down on rural life is so often part of this rhetoric. As long as rural Wales is neglected and is used to feed the ever-growing urban Cardiff, the left are always going to struggle to win support, and minority groups will always be at risk.
It is clear therefore, that the notion that cities should be an economic centre should be rethought. As our infrastructure supporting Cardiff grows, as does the cost to maintain and, inevitably, further develop upon it. The step to avoid an all-encompassing Cardiff region must be taken now.
The first step requires a push to ensure that rural areas have adequate broadband and phone signal. There are countless mobile dead spots within our countryside, and still too many towns lack broadband infrastructure. Providing both white-collar workers with an ability to set up and work anywhere in Wales, and supporting local businesses to establish an online presence. It is essential to develop a through telecommunications network.
We do need to address the fact that there is still a housing problem. Second home ownership in some parts of Wales is above 20%, reducing the ability for many to live locally. Councils need to be given the powers to dissuade this behaviour, and we need to begin using the Land Transaction Tax to raise price of second-home ownership. This is a start, but we still need to build. Goldsmith Street in Norwich serves as an example that sustainable social housing projects, designed to serve the community, and promote civic culture, are possible. These need to be led by government to ensure they are affordable, that corners are not cut, and that it is accountable to the public. The private sector can no longer be trusted.
Public transportation needs to be improved to adequately transport people in rural environments. This needs to be designed to support people travel to local facilities for leisure rather than toward big cities.
Local services need greater funding. Vocational learning and apprenticeships need more support to attract greater numbers of young people. Promotion of co-operative business schemes need to be promoted to create more resilient, local enterprises.
These are just a handful of some of the policy areas that should be focused upon for decision makers in 2021. None of these are particularly unique or new. The difference is that they need the political will to reach out to smaller communities, understand their concerns, and begin to support rural Wales. This will require greater funding but given that we now have £1bn in borrowing powers, we cannot afford to see all this money go towards supporting Cardiff.
The rural-urban divide exists across the world, and in many areas, urbanization is winning out. While cities are often seen as modern and symbols of human advancement, they should not become the basis of human life. Urbanisation needs to be curtailed, with greater attention given to improving rural life and the longevity of the local economy. The current political attitude is that a global world has no need for small towns and villages, and that the rural divide can be healed by removing the rural altogether. Given the world we live in, this attitude needs to be revaluated. Only by improving the rural can we create a more resilient Wales.
Hugh Kocan is the prospective Plaid Cymru Senedd candidate for Monmouth. He has recently graduated from Cardiff University with an Msc Econ, and has a keen interest in the Welsh economy and tax system.
[1] Mosalski, R. (2019, December 16). How much extra money every Welsh council will get from the Welsh Government next year. Retrieved from Wales Online: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/councils-welsh-government-funding-grant-17428926
[2] StatsWales. (2020, March 5). New dwellings completed by area, dwelling type and number of bedrooms. Retrieved from StatsWales: https://statswales.gov.wales/Catalogue/Housing/New-House-Building/newdwellingscompleted-by-area-dwellingtype-numberofbedrooms
[3] Clements, L. (2020, January 4). How Welsh towns and cities rank among UK’s most polluted places. Retrieved from WalesOnline: https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/how-welsh-towns-cities-rank-17509875
[4] NAEI. (2020, July 29). Emissions Map. Retrieved from National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory: https://naei.beis.gov.uk/emissionsapp/
