There are a fixed number of seats in the Senedd but all political parties want to and expect to make gains so obviously some or most will be disappointed.
Starting with Labour- The targets have to be Rhondda and Aberconwy
The Conservatives will look to turn parliamentary victories in Delyn, Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South, Wrexham, Ynys Mon, the Vale of Glamorgan and Bridgend from Labour and Brecon and Radnor from the Liberal Democrats into Senedd gains
Plaid Cymru will look to win some of their perennial Senedd targets such as Llanelli and Caerphilly, hold the Rhondda and make gains on the regional list
Liberal Democrats will look to hold Brecon and Radnor, win Cardiff Central and regional seats
Former UKIP under its various guises will attempt to win regional seats
What we discovered at the last Senedd election was that huge swings could be achieved in certain seats even if Rhondda was the only constituency seat to change hands.
The way the electoral system operates is that a close loss of constituency seats will be partially made up by gains in regional seats and constituency gains can, and have done in the past, lead to the loss of regional seats.
Labour will be standing on its record in Government and its commitment to continually improve the lives of the people of Wales
The Conservatives will focus on North Wales, Betsi Cadwalladr health board and their claim of greater economic competence.
Plaid Cymru will return to their roots and campaign for Independence and be critical of Westminster and the Welsh labour government
The Liberal Democrats will again attempt to find some relevance following their period in Government at Westminster which electorally has seriously hurt them.
The former UKIP will support abolishing the Senedd and other minority causes hoping to get enough votes to keep some or all of their regional seats
COVID will cast a shadow over the election. Will we have a vaccine, will we be in lockdown again and how will people react?
What will the effect of Brexit be? The 2019 General election was the Brexit election and previous Labour voters and non-voters flocked out to vote Conservative to “get Brexit done”, on January 1st 2021 it will be done.
Any prediction made six months before an election is almost certain to be wrong. What we do know is that there are four groups of electors Labour needs to convince to not only support it but vote at the Senedd election.
People who voted Labour in the last Senedd Election.
Younger people, for anyone 22 or younger this will be their first Senedd vote and they make up over 10% of those eligible to vote.
Traditional Labour voters who did not vote for us in 2019( voting either Conservative or not voting) due to wanting to get Brexit done.
Voters who are caring and compassionate but who have recently voted for other political parties often Plaid Cymru or Green.
We win these voters not by following the latest opinion poll or vox pop but by showing them how our values are their values.
Five areas that we need to concentrate on are
Animal welfare and the treating of all animals as sentient beings and taking action to stop all animal cruelty.
Taking action on climate change including large scale tree planting and stopping flood water. Higher and higher walls are not the answer what we need is to give the water somewhere to go before it floods and doing all we can to stop climate change.
Tackling poverty and whilst many of the tools to do that are at Westminster things such as free school meals throughout the school holidays, building of council houses and working to make Wales a living wage nation are within the Welsh Government’s power.
Improving people’s health and well-being. Improving the quality of housing and reducing poverty will reduce health inequality. According to the World Health Organisation Material poverty is the most important single determinant of life expectancy in Europe.
Building a sustainable economy and benefitting from Wales’ world class universities to promote industrial sectors such as green industries, ICT and life sciences, high skilled, high paid and not geographically constrained.
Of course we could still be in the middle of the pandemic next May but I am much more confident in the handling of it by Mark Drakeford and the Welsh Government than the Tories at Westminster.
Mike Hedges is the Member of the Senedd for Swansea East
